Iowa is one of those states that is an enigma when it comes to national elections. It has a poor track record of producing a winner that actually goes on to be President for GOP candidates yet everyone wanting to be the GOP nominee rushes there to try to win it just because it is the “first” place votes are cast.
In the final Des Moines Register poll before the caucuses, conducted over four days, the race is Romney with his typical 25%, Ron Paul at 22% and Rick Santorum at 15%. But as the Register points out, if you look at the final two days (the most recent data) Santorum doubled his support:
What makes Santorum’s growth spurt particularly striking is his last-second rise: He averaged 10 points after the first two nights of polling, but doubled that during the second two nights. Looking just at the final day of polling, he was just one point down from Romney’s 23 percent on Friday.
Paul is litterally in a tailspin as likely GOP caucus goers have apparently looked more closely at his record, dropping from 29% on day one of the poll to 16% on the last.
Santorum looks to be the last man standing for GOP voters who find Romney’s brand of dangerous, flip-flopping moderatism unappealing. Santorum has portrayed himself as a real conservative, a matter which I have strongly contested with facts about his big government, anti-constitutional ways which he himself has promoted.
But with only a few days left before the Iowa caucuses, he seems to be Mr. Momentum.
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